http://www.globalenvision.org/2009/02/05/can-economic-crisis-be-good-africa

It has been interesting to see that there has been some insulation or lag time in the global economic crises influencing Africa - telling me that (as a factor of relative smallness of the African economies compared with others) these countries are not as tightly woven in to the international business system.

Perhaps this is because the primary economic relationship of most African countries with the West is not based on real-time trade (instead a lot comes from Foreign Aid that is given in increments of 6 to 12 month periods, or tourism which is seasonal), and most people in African themselves are not immediately impacted by sharp turns in stock markets (they are not going to lose much sleep - not having to worry about things like retirement savings depletion, bank and mortgage crises, not borrowing money in huge tranches for everyday business needs from the West, and not selling as much on a day-to-day routine basis, etc).

I would be very hesitant, however, to say that it will not hit Africa harder in future months, even though I hope I am wrong.

Some examples:
- Tourism (and all the industries that live off tourism - e.g. transport, food, fast moving consumer goods like detergents, electricity, water, municipal councils, aviation) - the seasonal in-flow of capital from tourism will surely be hit.
- Remittances - Money being sent from Kenyans abroad reached 4% or 5% of our GDP (in Guyana it is much higher). Many export industries do not earn that much. As they get paid less abroad, they will have less to send back.
- Agriculture, which provides a lot of income, is becoming more interlaced with global markets and thus vulnerable to fluctuations in other parts of the world. And as commodity prices plummet, agricultural commodities such as tea, coffee, wheat, corn, sugar, livestock etc. are selling at discount prices.
- Taxes - Although a lot of the “aid” goes to people on top, as it dries up in future months (along with taxes from things like hotels, etc), I wouldn’t put it past officials to find additional reasons for taxes (either raising taxes and/or creating new ones).

I wonder if the article you posted is more an example of someone (World Bank economist Dambisa Moyo) looking for the silver lining around the cloud? - Trying to find what could be good about the whole situation and how African’s could end up better than before?

If that is the case, then I still think it is a good article - and exactly what should happen.
See things as they are, but not worse than they are.
And then try and figure out how we can make them even better than they are.

(1) the playing field could be leveled a bit if foreign powers are able to give less subsidies to their own farmers which puts?
e.g. farm subsidies at 34% are the biggest single budgetary item in the EU Budget;

(2) perhaps people will question more assumptions behind the “ideal” neoclassical economic ideology which hasn’t yet worked when imposed in developing countries, and look for more home-grown models and solutions?;

(3) real estate prices will likely decrease even in African countries and housing will become more affordable for some.

Any other ideas?

In my humble opinion, we are in a great moment to assess our value system, and acting locally. Global is good for some things, but local is also relevant.

I agree that it is an opportunity for people in development, because one can realized today that the “money” it is not all. Let me explain: I do not see any difference of homeless living in shack in SouthAfrica (SA) for example, to homeless living in “Tent - city” in California. What I see, at least from the distance, is that the kids who born in those circumstances in SA, might be have more hopes, are willing to fight for a better tomorrow and smile the today. While the kids that used to have a house with a garage full of stuff and now they have nothing, without a doubt are in worse situation, as most of them are in severe depressions, surround of depress and frustrated adults.

You can’t take away anything from someone that has nothing. Then it is a perfect time to think and focus on our set of values. What does each individual wants to “give”, or “offer” or to have? . Do we need a garage full of “products” that we do not actually need, however pushes us to be in eternal debt to be happy, OR we understand that our happiness starts in ourselves, and by harmonizing with our environment we can rise self-respect for ourselves and our surroundings while promoting education.

What will happen? I think no-one really knows, but I am sure than more than one is thinking or evaluating his/her own set of values. And THAT is a good beginning already, even if it is painful process.

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